(The English version of the German text published in Makronom.)
In the German pension reform conflict, the Junge CDU claims that stabilising pension payments at 48% is unfair to the younger generation that must bear the cost of supporting a bloated generation of dependents. They claim this is a question of generational justice.
If we are to talk about justice, then we should examine the retirement system ethically. Given the CDU’s ‘Wirtschaft first’ (Economy first)agenda, this is not a superfluous exercise. Ultimately the CDU forces the question, ‘Do people serve the economy, or does the economy serve people?’
Framing the retirement debate as a matter of generational justice, the inverse of the Generational Contract, which is what the German PAYGO system is also known by, is bound to lead to murky ethical waters. Based on a transactional logic, it inevitably antagonises different age groups by justifying the allocation of resources based on accomplishments and potential. Given the climate crisis, colonialism, and historical wrongs that continue to be committed, it is difficult to talk about any meaningful form of generational justice. The argument can quickly become nihilistic.
The existing PAYGO system, where the labour force makes regular contributions to support retirees, is imperfect. Women and anyone excluded from good, formal working conditions have long been most impacted by elderly poverty. The current retirement system perpetuates many systemic injustices, partly because wellbeing in old age is conceived as a right to be earned.
Rights, however, are not earned. It would be more fruitful to situate the topic within the broader welfare debate, as pensions are ultimately concerned with how those who cannot work live in our society, and what support we make available to them.
The Demographic Transition is about People
Ageing demographics, whether in Germany, China, or other advanced economies, threatens classical economic assumptions of welfare provision, where a larger labour force supports a smaller group of dependents, whether through financial contributions or through the production of goods and services. But at its core, the demographic transition is about people. Productivity per capita is not fixed, and a smaller workforce can achieve more, but only if the country invests in its workers rather than relying on cheap supply chains and the continued exploitation of often gendered and migrant labour.
The CDU’s proposed cuts to social spending directly undermine the labor force. Shifting costs to individuals—such as the reduction of Care Level 1 benefits—would directly weaken the structures that enable labor participation. Women, facing a gender pay gap of 17.6% and correspondingly lower pensions, already absorb the bulk of unpaid care work. They often outlive partners, leaving them not only with smaller pensions but also no caregiver. This exacerbates gender inequality across the entire life course and the bill would undo decades of work toward greater gender equity.
Industrial policy that hopes for innovation requires people and their capacity to innovate and to adapt. Economists have already raised concerns that innovation policies are slipping into a middle technology trap. This suggests not only a lag in technological ambition but also investment in education and social infrastructure will be necessary.
Ostensibly to compensate for the shrinking labor force, other proposals include a mandatory year of volunteer work for elderly citizens and tax-free earnings from Aktivrente to encourage older people to continue working, Yet productivity and longevity are not synonymous. Late-life conditions such as dementia and reduced mobility are highly unpredictable, though preventive care may delay onset or reduce severity. Without accessible healthcare, longevity becomes a fiscal burden rather than an asset.
Purchasing Power – the Missing Lens
Lobby groups such as the INSM argue that economic growth is key to securing higher pensions; however housing, energy and care coss have risen significantly faster than wages and pension adjustments. Increases are irrelevant if the essential basket of old age outpaces them. If we are concerned about how to pay for welfare, then it is equally important to consider factors affecting purchasing power, sovereignty over the supply of essential goods and services, and their prices.
Consider that no pension architecture can be socially successful if retirees do not have secure housing. Germany’s homeownership rate of 47.2%, is the second lowest in the OECD, leaving millions exposed to rental volatility. 12% of the German population spends over 40% of their income on housing costs, above the 8.2% EU average. For younger generations, the housing expenses delay wealth accumulation and reduce their own retirement resilience.
A move towards a system where pensions are funded through investments in the capital market, risks reinforcing this dynamic. Pension funds invest in housing companies such as Vonovia, whose business models profit from rising rents. Meanwhile, public spending on housing allowances has soared: housing subsidies rose from €1.4 billion in 2021 to €4.3 billion in 2023, after the reform to include heating subsidies. While households urgently need support, it is worth asking whether redirecting billions into rental income – without expanding affordable housing or renewable energy for energy sovereignty – is an efficient use of public funds.
By 2030, approximately 29% of the German population will be over 65. A funded system offers no escape because it fails to address the ownership and prices of key expenses; as demonstrated in the housing crisis, profits come at the expense of higher costs of living. Germany has been in a stagnation since 2018 and PAYGO can be a robust solution as it requires no savings – it was established when Germans had no savings after the second World war. But investments in people are needed. And of course, in climate action.
Strong social investment, affordable housing, and climate resilience benefit both current retirees and younger workers. Rather than hoping to continue as usual, the demographic transition is an opportunity to examine underlying assumptions about savings, and to re-embrace welfare as a right.